Newsletter summary

The demand for iron ore may decline after the festival, but the policy stimulus and the issuance of treasury bonds are good.PaytoearngamescryptoRebar inventory decline, the real estate market loose expectations; hot coil inventory pressure, pay attention to equipment renewal policy. It is recommended to buy every bargain, and the layout of the medium and long term is more than one.

Text of news flash

[iron ore market analysis: the expected decline in demand is hedged with the policy, and it is recommended to buy at a bargain]

The replenishment activities in the iron ore market before May 1 have been completed, and it is expected that the demand for raw materials will decline after the festival. At the same time, port inventories remain at an all-time high, significantly suppressing mineral prices. However, with the implementation of policies such as "trade-in" and "equipment renewal", it is expected to effectively stimulate consumer demand in the market and have a positive impact on real estate and manufacturing. In addition, with the issuance of special treasury bonds from May to June and the acceleration of the pace of fiscal expenditure, it is expected to promote the increase of physical workload and inject new impetus into the economic recovery. Operationally, the 09 contract climbed to a high level in late April and may show a concussive adjustment trend in the short term, but it is expected that the trend will first restrain and then rise in May, and investors are advised to buy when the price is low.

[rebar inventory is rapidly eliminated, domestic demand policy boost is expected to increase]

Before the festival, the rebar market inventory was quickly removed, which effectively alleviated the pressure on steel mills to resume production. In the context of reduced policy uncertainty, after three years of consolidation, the real estate market began to enter an easing cycle, and the boost attitude of domestic demand policy has become more positive. Stimulated by the strong macro expectations after the festival, it is expected that the demand for rebar will continue to improve. Although the short-term rally of the main contract RB2410 has slowed down, it is expected that there will be repetition. It is recommended that investors take short-term shock thinking, while the layout of low prices in the long-term.

[hot coil market: steel prices rebounded in April, export profits are excess, but subsequent increments are limited]

In April, hot-roll market prices rebounded after bottoming out, but the pressure on inventory destocking is still high. Although there is still a high profit margin for exports, the increase in overseas orders is expected to be limited with the arrival of overseas festivals. Before the festival, the stock preparation activities in the downstream market have been basically completed, and after the festival, the market will pay close attention to the demand changes brought about by the policy of "trade-in" of consumer goods and large-scale equipment renewal. Operationally, HC2410 contracts may face repetition in the short term, so investors are advised to adopt concussion ideas and at the same time, the layout is long-term and single when the price is low.